Long-range shooting in Serie A taps into a tension between spectacle and efficiency: fans love 25‑metre screamers, but analytics show that shots from outside the box convert at very low rates. Understanding how Italian teams use, and sometimes overuse, these attempts helps clarify which attacks are built on disciplined chance creation and which lean heavily on low-probability solutions.
Why Analysing Shots from Outside the Box Is Worth the Effort
Expected-goals research across top leagues consistently finds that efforts from outside the box convert at roughly 3–4%—around 0.03–0.036 xG per shot, meaning one goal every 25–33 attempts on average. By contrast, non‑big chances inside the box typically convert close to 7–12%, and big chances even higher, underscoring that distance alone massively reduces scoring probability.
This gap explains why modern tactical trends across Europe, including Serie A, show a gradual decline in long-range shots. BBC analysis notes that average shots from outside the box per game have fallen significantly across the big five leagues, as teams have “positioned themselves closer to the goal” and prioritised higher-value attempts. In Italy, where defences remain compact and lanes to goal are narrow, a side’s reliance on long‑range shooting becomes a practical indicator of how effectively it breaks lines compared with settling for speculative efforts.
Which Serie A Teams Actually Score the Most from Outside the Box
While full shot-location breakdowns are not publicly standardised, rankings of goals scored from outside the box provide a useful proxy. AS’s “goal from a shot outside the box” table for Serie A shows Atalanta leading with 12 long‑range goals, followed by Roma with 11 and Fiorentina with 10. Juventus and Como share the next tier with 8 goals each, while Inter and Udinese also register 7 from distance.
Further down that list, Verona, Cagliari, and Napoli each have 6 long‑range goals, with Parma, Torino, Bologna, Empoli, Venezia, and Lecce all scoring between 4 and 5. Atalanta, Roma, and Fiorentina therefore stand out as the clearest exponents of frequent and successful long‑range shooting among Serie A’s established clubs, while Juventus and Inter mix distance goals into a broader attacking repertoire that also leans heavily on box entries and crosses.
How Long-Range Attempts Fit Within Overall Shot Volume
Raw shot-volume data help distinguish between teams that resort to long shots because they cannot enter the box and those that use distance efforts as one of multiple tools. FootyStats’ team-shots tables highlight Inter as the clear volume leader: 95% of their matches see them record over 10.5 shots, with high occurrence even at higher thresholds. Juventus and Como follow closely, with similarly high “over 10.5” frequencies. On the match level, combined shots across both teams are highest in games involving Juventus, Inter, Fiorentina, and Torino, indicating environments where attempts—including from range—are plentiful.
Because long-range goals are rare, most of Atalanta’s, Roma’s, and Fiorentina’s distance strikes arise within larger shot portfolios. Inter, for example, generate 15+ shots per game on average, with a substantial share from inside the box, yet still rank among sides with seven or more outside‑the‑box goals in recent rankings. Atalanta’s and Fiorentina’s high match‑shot counts—both appear near the top of “over 23.5 match shots” tables—suggest that their long‑range tallies reflect both volume and a tactical willingness to shoot early rather than recycle possession endlessly.
Mechanism: Why Teams Still Shoot from Distance Despite Low xG
The persistence of long-range shooting despite poor average returns reflects three mechanisms. First, defensive structures in Serie A often compress the box, leaving half‑spaces and zones 20–25 metres from goal as the only available shooting lanes. In these situations, some coaches accept low xG per shot in exchange for cumulative pressure—forcing saves, rebounds, and deflections that can generate second‑phase chances.
Second, individual skill matters: teams with gifted long‑shot takers—Atalanta under Gian Piero Gasperini or Roma with shooters who can bend shots from the D—gain more from these attempts than average conversion tables suggest. One-versus-one’s rankings of “goals by long distance shot” consistently feature players like Rafael Leão, Nico Paz, and Kenan Yıldız as standout long‑range scorers, reflecting both technique and shot selection. Third, set‑piece free‑kicks from outside the box carry slightly higher conversion rates (around 5–6%) than open‑play long shots, making them a rational part of structured attacking despite their distance.
Comparing Long-Range Output Across Leading Serie A Teams
A direct comparison of long‑range goals helps clarify which teams truly lean on this weapon versus those for whom it is a complement:
| Team | Goals from outside the box | Implication for attacking style |
| Atalanta | 12 | High‑press, high‑volume attack; ready to shoot early from edges |
| Roma | 11 | Low‑scoring matches overall but strong individual shooting from range |
| Fiorentina | 10 | Possession-focused with frequent attempts from deep and half‑spaces |
| Juventus | 8 | Mix of structured box attacks and occasional long‑range solutions |
| Como 1907 | 8 | Overachievers whose long‑range threat compensates for fewer elite forwards |
| Inter | 7 | Dominant overall; distance goals are one more layer of threat |
| Udinese | 7 | Relies on long shots to supplement limited box penetration |
Atalanta’s and Fiorentina’s positions line up with their reputations as shot‑heavy sides; Roma’s presence reflects their tendency to manage low‑event games but benefit from capable long‑range shooters. Juventus and Inter need fewer long‑range goals proportionally because their box attacks, crosses, and cutbacks already produce substantial goal output.
When Long-Range Volume Strengthens or Weakens a Team’s Attack
Long‑range shooting can strengthen a team when it reflects a guided strategy: taking selective shots from favourable central zones outside the box to exploit keeper positioning or to capitalise on loose clearances. BBC’s survey of “the slow death of the screamer” notes that many top clubs have moved to reduce low‑value shots, not remove them entirely, accepting distance efforts mainly when high‑quality options are unavailable. In that framework, Atalanta’s and Inter’s use of long shots functions as a pressure tool layered onto frequent box entries and set‑piece routines.
However, overreliance on long‑range attempts usually weakens attacks. Expected‑goals studies spell out that a side taking many 0.03 xG shots must generate a huge volume to approach the same scoring expectation as a team with a smaller number of 0.12 xG box chances. If Fiorentina or Udinese resort too often to shooting from 25 metres in static possession, they can inflate shot counts without meaningfully increasing goals, creating a misleading impression of attacking dominance while giving opponents’ goalkeepers relatively comfortable saves.
Educational UFABET Perspective: How to Read Long-Range Profiles in Pre-Match Analysis
From an educational viewpoint, understanding long‑range tendencies clarifies how teams might behave when space tightens. Long‑shot‑heavy sides are more likely to keep shooting in low‑xG situations instead of recycling play; box‑focused teams may patiently search for cutbacks and through balls rather than firing from distance. In Serie A’s tactical context, where many matches involve compact blocks and narrow channels, these differences help interpret why two sides with similar shot totals can have very different xG and goal outcomes.
When a user later evaluates Italian fixtures inside an online betting site operated by ยูฟ่าเบท168, long‑range profiles can guide expectations about shot volume and chance quality. A match featuring Atalanta or Fiorentina may produce high overall shots and occasional spectacular goals but also a larger share of low‑probability attempts from outside the box, affecting xG‑to‑goal conversion volatility. Conversely, a game between more box‑disciplined teams may have lower raw shot counts but higher average xG per shot, yielding more efficient scoring from fewer attempts. Long‑range analysis thus supports a more nuanced reading of whether 15 shots really signal sustained threat or a mix of hopeful and high‑value efforts.
Where Long-Range Shooting Data Can Mislead
Out‑of‑box goal counts are highly sensitive to small numbers and individual brilliance, which means they can overstate structural tendencies. A handful of exceptional strikes across a season can move a team several places up a long‑range goals table without indicating a systematic strategy; the underlying xG per shot from those zones may still be close to generic baselines. Small-sample volatility is especially pronounced for clubs with limited shot volumes—Como or Venezia can appear unusually good from distance after just a few successful efforts.
Moreover, long‑range metrics rarely separate open play from set pieces in headline tables, even though free‑kicks from 20–25 metres carry a higher conversion rate than speculative shots from similar distances in open play. Without that separation, reading “goals from outside the box” as evidence of sustained open-play shot quality risks conflating dead‑ball skill with structural attacking behaviour.
Summary
Analysing long‑range shooting in Serie A reveals how different teams balance spectacle and efficiency. Atalanta, Roma, and Fiorentina lead recent rankings for goals scored from outside the box, with Juventus, Como, Inter, and Udinese close behind, reflecting a mix of high‑volume attack and the presence of skilled distance shooters. Expected‑goals research underscores that shots from outside the area are inherently low‑probability actions, converting roughly once every 25–33 attempts, so their value depends on context—whether they are rare, selective weapons layered onto strong box attacks, or default options masking an inability to penetrate deeper. Reading long‑range data alongside overall shot volume, xG, and tactical style turns “shooting from distance” from a highlight reel trope into a grounded part of how Italian teams construct, and sometimes waste, their attacking possessions.
